ONLINE POKER - SITE - Full Tilt

[buck22]

Whatodds I think you've missed my point about how 100k hands (which is now 50k, sure it was 100k before) will pretty reliably reflect your WINRATE, not the EV of each of the hundreds of different situations ie flush draw, Im sure you have your maths wrong with this.

Each hand you play has its own expected value, 100k of these should balance these values out. But out of these hands how many are flush draw situations? Alot fewer! For this situation to occur you need:
a)To be in hand - 25% (estimates)
b)Flop & opponants hand must contain total of 4 flush cards- 16%
c)To flop a commited hand - 13%
d)opponant & you all in on flop - 90%

So it will occur once in 237ish hands, 50k/237= 210
So you've seen around 210 opponants flush draws in this sample, now being out atleast 70/30 is unlikely over 210 trials but not out of the realms of possiblity and definately not 'billions to 1'.

Whatever you think of any site, you've got to make sure you've got your maths and expectation right. Ive hit 50k hands in the last 3weeks and my EV is about $500 below winnings, I friken deserve it after last 4 months, but it goes to show 50k hands really isnt enough cos ive just managed to run like sh*t for 50k, then run well for 50k