VA you bastard! How dare you make a reasonable argument and make me re-think my position. I hate when that happens!
I think your last post is spot on- none of us really know. Some of us have data that lends us to beleive one thing and some have data that lends us to believe the opposite. At the end of the day - none of us have sufficient data.
I do beleive this - FT and the other sites could do a lot more in the marketing and PR world on this issue. Ironically, last month FT asked me to complete a fairly comprehensive questionairre on ways they could increase player satisfaction (actually gave me ten bucks in my account to do it). The three things I told them were:
1) Treat loyal, existing players as well as those you are trying to recruit. The large first time sign up bonuses should be shared with those who have been on the site (call them retention bonuses).
2) Make withdrawals as easy and timely as deposits. AND - most importantly
3) Prove/Market (you pick the term) that the card distribution is fair. The site that can do this can corner the market on this issue (i.e., here is the proof that we are dealing a fair game- hire Anderson Cooper or some large accounting firm to review and attest to actual hand histories - not just the RNG). It is a mystery to me why this is not pursued is marketing strategy number one for an on-line poker site. It is kind of like a company who makes electrical products not bothering with UL certification, a drug company not caring about FDA review, etc. etc. Demonstable intergrity should be the number one thing Poker Stars, FT, etc should be focusing on. If I owned a poker site - I would spend most of my effort on that. If they don't - the upstarts like REALDEAL or someone else is going to beat them to the punch.
Overall, you have changed my mind. My new view is going to simply be - I don't know, but I think it might be rigged based on my own experience.