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Even though I agree with Buck22 about the RNG, I think whatodds might be right about the example. In that example you are kind of assuming that the guy who flopped middle pair is pretty good and the guy who flopped TPTK is not. In reality, if the better player flopped TPTK he would almost certainly be able to get away from it after the river raise. Also, if the guy who flopped MP is just your average micro calling station, he is not only calling the turn but the river as well even if he misses, he still has a pair after all, they don't fold pairs often. Playing at those stakes is basically a balancing act of getting great value with things like top pair, while being smart enough not to stack off to the guy who caught his second pair on the river. That way you ruin their implied odds which are telling them they can take your whole stack if they hit. As whatodds said, its usually pretty easy to tell when they hit. If you bet into the average micro guy after the river with him holding 2nd or 3rd pair you are getting called, if that guy happened to hit 2 pair on the river, you are getting raised. Thats why betting TPTK for a third time after the river is profitable in micro and is def. not at all profitable in bigger games. Obv there are certain guys who might make the raise on the river with a busted draw or something, but if a guy has that in his arsenal you will find out soon enough. This is why micro games are easily beatable with an ABC, TAG style of just waiting for big hands and maxing the value you get from them. Also, if he's had success at all the other sites on micro levels im sure he knows how donks play and how to beat them. If I had to take a guess at why he wasn't successful at FTP (assuming the RNG isnt rigged) I would say its mental. IMO no player can ever win at anything that they just KNOW they are going to lose at. That goes for everything not just poker. So if whatodds went into these 50k hands knowing he was going to be cheated and lose, he was destined to lose IMO which is why I've repeatedly told him he's crazy for playing there if he thinks its rigged.
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