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Lost my computer drive so have not posted for awhile. Interesting threads.
Does not matter if it is one hand or a thousand - the response is always going to be the same ("ain't statistically valid").
Not to speak for Billy, but if he has had my experience, I think he was thinking something like this:
1. Dude bets out of position - Hmmmm - I know I have pocket KK and should raise, but the last 3,500 times I have shoved preflop with this hand I get called by some 20% ROI player with ace rag and lose with an ace on the flop.
2. Okay - smooth call - if the typical ace comes I'll fold.
3. Great flop - the Full Tilt fok me server must be on the fritz today.
4. What - he bets? Overpair maybe? Is this guy legit - I'll bet the bastard has tens - maybe jacks. Maybe even hit the rag part of his ace. Okay - one more just to make sure it ain't the ace rag curse. Call.
5. Turn - Q - big bet by the fella - good - I finally got the read - AQ or KQ - good time to shove - he's crushed.
6. WTF?????? Q friggin 4 - he raised in mid position with Q friggin 4? Foking idiot - what is is poker ranking - 51% - foking figures. Come on - I still got any 2, 9 or K -
7. River 4 - super - just foking super, wouldn't have mattered if I had three aces - was going down.
The moral of the story is this. There is a commune of us that have been foked so many times that we have stopped playing poker (at least on this site) according to the book because NO MATTER HOW WE PLAY A HAND - we are screwed. I can't count the times I have had a hand like Bill's where I played it traditional - raise - get - reraised - tell myself - well, if he has Aces - that's poker - only to have the dude call an all in with some horrible hand and suck out anyway. What happens here - (okay - in my personal experience) you are gonna get the goodbye hand when FT has had enough of ya. You'll flop the set of Kings to be beat by runner runner flush by some guy who called with 10 3 suited, etc. etc.
When I play live and get KK or AA the cashier register in my head goes cha-ching!!! At Fulltilt - I hear the "here we go again" This is the hand they are sending me out on.
I nevered really cared about losing or winning on FT - I make my money in live games. What I wanted was a good decent place to practice poker. That, it is not. There was a period of time where my live game went in the tank because my FT experience was influencing my play- I had to detox - took some time but I got back to normal.
And yes - you all should keep track of all your all ins. Compare your stats with hands at critical moments (70% of your stack or better) and see if the odds play out correctly - they never have for me - maybe it's just me.
I do believe that one day there will be the 60 minutes story on the rig - maybe I am just crazy -we'll see.
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