Your right, but the original question was the following:

It is the first hand of the WSOP, a player goes all-in with and 3 players call. You figure at least a couple of them have high pairs and ther other player a decent hand. Against 3 other players, AA is a slightly better than 50% favorite (54%). Do you call looking to double up and take the chip lead - knowing you could also bust out on the first hand? or fold knowing that you can double up your stack anyway with less risk - knowing that having the chip lead on the first day means nothing?

The problem with the above, is that the question is making assumpions on the other players hands. You could be under 50% to win with 3 other people in the pot with you.


Three and its probably a fold. because

You can lose and be out of the tournament, if it was for anything under 50% of my chips, i would call. You can make up the loss the next time you are dealt a very strong hand if you have chips left. You cant make up those losses if you are out of the tournament.

So everyone quoting odds: your odds are only good if you have the time to make the odds real.

As an example: Even though the odds are in their favor, a casino can lose alot of money in a 15 min time frame(say they had to pay a couple of big jackpots). If the casino was forced to close down right then, just like you would have to leave the tournament by calling and losing, they would go out of business even though they had better odds.

Lets say that the casino has a 10% theoretical advantage on you. They will win 10% more often than you. But thats not the only odds that you should look at. Out of 10 trys with a 10$ bet, your total loss theoretically is -$10. But short term fluctuations can easily make someone win 4 times in a row. If you stop playing after winning 4 times, you will make +$30 out 10 bets. Hence, beating the odds and going home a winner. Now, if there was someone making you play 1000 games in row, the short term fluctuations will go both ways, and the casino will win everytime because the odds have time to catch up.

This is why casinos can work on a small percentage on some games. Its Time that makes odds work, not short term fluctuations. You have one advantage the the casinos do not want you to know.......You can leave anytime when you are up. They will stay open, they have to because they are playing long term odds and thats what makes them winners. not a short term fluctuations , win/loss. That is why casinos dont care when someone wins, they know that they will make it up long term. They cannot do that if the player stops playing or if the casino shuts down.

Poker is one of the few games that a player can have an advantage long term if played properly. Not short term. No one has a short term advantage. The turn of the cards can make anyone a winner. Even a bad starting hand. but if played long enough, the the good hand/player will make up the loss if the betting is the same in the same situation.

Why the same? because if you lose a $1000 bet on PAs you cant try and win it back by betting $100 in the same situation, or only getting 2 callers instead of 3. If you do, you are getting even worse odds for your PAs, because you paid more to win less

Now...If your PAs, at a short term percentage at 50%, get busted in the first hand in the WSOP, do you think, long term, you will ever be in the WSOP, in the 1st hand, with PAs, and 3 callers?

Those odds are so large they cannot be calculated.(unless you consistantly play in $10,000 tournaments with 2500 entrants)

Therefore, a fold is obvious.

Not because you cant win, but because the short term odds actually trick your brain into thinking that it is a good call. You are therorically getting 3 to 1 on your bet, and you have the best hand. But if you lose, and you are only a 50% favorite, you will never be able to make up the loss.

If you are in a low limit tourney that you play every week. Its a good call to make. Your odds of making up that loss will eventually catch up to you, and you will make back your short term 3 to 1 bet.